Never let the facts stand in the way of a self-serving lie
That seems to be the maxim of Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa's politics these days. Under the headline "Villaraigosa: Faking an Economic Miracle," Max Taves in the L.A. Weekly nails the mayor -- and the Times and KPCC for uncritically stooging for him -- by making a farcical study by the D.C.-based nonprofit Social Compact, "Los Angeles DrillDown," look like economic science. Taves key graph: "Mayor Villaraigosa, who has come under criticism for chronically announcing big quality-of-life initiatives -- planting 1 million trees, reducing congestion, fighting grafitti, ending filthy dumping -- that go nowhere, seems almost desperate to make struggling neighborhoods appear better off." You can apply that same statement to the whole city.
Here's one of the many reasons newspapers are dying: They have lost connection with the public
One of the hottest topics around town is the crime and violence associated with street gangs who terrorize so much of the city, and the current specific hot topic is the senseless murders of innocent victims by illegal immigrant gangbangers.The Daily News has six stories today about LA. city government, including photos and prominent display to opening of nine three-way crosswalks, while the Times has two on local government. Neither paper has any stories about how the people and their dealings and view of city government. There is no coverage of KABC radio talk show host Doug McIntyre's protest rally and broadcast in support of Jamiel's Law although radio and TV stations did cover it. The focus on government and not people and community activism is a subject Barbara Osborn and I will be talking about this afternoon at 3:30 p.m. on KPFK 90.7FM and taking calls from listeners.
What's a few million bucks among friends when there's $40 billion to be made
Just ask South County Supervisor Don Knabe. Two days after supplying the third vote to reject approval of MTA's half-cent transit tax ballot measure, Knabe did a flip-flop and declared he will move to reconsider the vote next week.
"Although I am against the sales-tax plan, I
cannot in good conscience burden county residents with over $10 million
in higher election costs," Knabe told the Daily News. "The taxpayers will have to pay
for these costs, and that is something I will not allow to happen." The Times quotes him as saying: "I remain absolutely opposed to the MTA sales tax measure and I plan to
spend my time and effort campaigning against it. The plan is not equitable for all County residents and this is
the wrong time to burden people with even higher taxes."
So what momentous information swayed Knabe, whose district gets almost nothing but the bill from the tax hike?
It would cost MTA $10 million, not $3 million, for a second ballot for its tax in November -- and that's enough for the fork-tongued supervisor to eliminate the negative impact of the board's rejection of the bond measure.
Long Beach officials report water demand for July reached a 10-year record low. It is the 7th record-setting month for water use since September 2007 when steps were taken in the face of an imminent water shortage that is expected to get much worse in coming months. July 2008 water demand was 16.1 percent below the 10-year average water demand; 13 percent below July 2007.
Ron Kaye is the former editor of the Los Angeles Daily News where he spent 23 years helping to make the newspaper the voice of the San Fernando Valley and fighting for a city government that serves the people and not special interests.
Twice in recent years, Los Angeles Magazine listed Kaye among the city’s most influential people, specifically in the area of politics. Kaye has been variously described in the media as the “accidental anarchist,” “the Patrick Henry of the San Fernando Valley” and a “passionate populist.” He is now committed to
carrying on his crusade for a greater Los Angeles as an ordinary citizen. Previously, Ron worked at the Los Angeles Herald Examiner,
Associated Press, Cleveland Plain Dealer and The Australian as well as papers
in Fairbanks, Alaska and Yakima, Wash. He also wrote for Newsweek magazine, The Guardian in London and the National Enquirer.
McIntyre and Moore made so much sense yesterday, I think they had a lot of people listening in. I think that eventually the city hall gang are going to have to face reality, they have burned their bridges behind them. Nobody believes them anymore and I personally told one of them he was a liar. He is.
The newspapers are so stupid in my opinion. Ads and National and World News from the newswires.
The Daily News still has Orlov, Anderson, Anderes, and the sports writers. If they lose their jobs, the Daily News will lose subscribers and will end up like the Green Sheet of olden days, a throw-away. Mendenhall made a good living from the Green Sheet and so did the newsboy on my street. So they will not go broke, just very different. No longer in touch with the public and reality. Throw aways usually get thrown away.
Meantime, I have learned to use a new place on the internet called "Search the Web" and it sure is giving the newspapers a run for the money. I have my favorite talk-radio hosts as well, Doug, Bill, Larry being special favorites. I was sorry to hear about Rantel's injury yesterday, tho'. Teddy Howell
Ron, this is too good not to print in it's entirety, lol! Max Taves is the new David Z. of L.A. Weekly!
Villaraigosa: Faking an Economic Miracle
Mayor sought a study saying East and South L.A. are booming. They're not
By MAX TAVES
Wednesday, August 6, 2008 - 5:50 pm
LOS ANGELES MIGHT BE in the middle of a housing crisis, suffering the nation’s highest fuel costs and plummeting in its ranking as a center of global commerce. But there’s a place in L.A. immune from turmoil, where incomes have swollen by double digits, homeownership has skyrocketed and the grass is green. It’s a land of untapped wealth.
At least, those were the conclusions of the D.C.-based nonprofit Social Compact, whose report, “Los Angeles DrillDown,” studied nine heavily minority neighborhoods, several of which are economically downtrodden: Boyle Heights, Central City East, Crenshaw/Baldwin Hills, Hyde Park, Jefferson Park, Leimert Park, Vernon Central, Watts and West Adams.
Over the last two weeks of July, the study’s conclusions made their way unhindered by critical examination into a prominent L.A. Times article in the business section, as well as a Times editorial and a KPCC public-radio discussion.
Too bad the nonprofit’s spin — that there is significantly more money in those enclaves than ever imagined — is based largely on misleading, useless, selectively chosen, egregiously rosy data and inexplicable omissions that read like a primer from the 1954 classic How to Lie with Statistics.
“I’m not comfortable as a researcher to say I can really believe these numbers,” says Jennifer Magnabosco, associate director of Loyola Marymount University’s Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles, echoing the concerns of several academics.
But even misleading data can serve a purpose — especially for inner-city boosters like landowners and politicians, who can point to ginned-up accomplishments. Solid examples of investment are still rare, such as Wal-Mart and Macy’s in Baldwin Hills and the new British-owned Fresh & Easy markets — think Trader Joe’s meets miniature Costco — in Glassell Park and on South Central Avenue.
Enter Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.
Social Compact launched its L.A. study in 2007 — invited and embraced by Villaraigosa’s office, says its president and CEO, John Talmage. It finished its expensive study in May, spending $100,000 to complete “DrillDown,” which was underwritten mostly by Bank of America’s Charitable Foundation.
What accounts for much of the study’s high production cost is also what is supposed to make “DrillDown” better than other such reports. It combs private and public databases, like credit agencies, utilities, the Internal Revenue Service and mortgage data.
Social Compact’s usual message to urban leaders and corporations is that you can make money off of inner-city residents — and make them richer and healthier at the same time — by replacing the staples of slum-dom with the staples of middle-class consumerism. Replace “vig”-charging payday lenders and pawn shops with Washington Mutuals and Bank of Americas; liquor stores with Jamba Juices; and corner mom-and-pops with Costcos. Big-city politicians who cut ribbons for grocery stores in dowdy urban cores tout such events as proof that they are smart leaders with policies that work.
The idea behind Social Compact’s “DrillDown” is simple: If its studies “prove” — and, curiously, they always do — that there’s more prosperity in an area than claimed by conventional wisdom, media depictions and existing data — think the U.S. Census — then grocery stores or banks will rethink their aversion to the inner city, move in, make money and revitalize an area in the process.
After Talmage’s group studied L.A., he boldly asserted to the Times, “Retailers have said up to now there isn’t a market there. I’m telling you — you have a market.”
The most optimistic signs for this prosperity were contained in the report’s “DrillDown Highlights” and regurgitated as fact by the paper’s business section.
IF TRUE, IT WOULD HAVE been huge news. One of the most surprising statistics is that “average household income” in the nine areas is $46,000 — a startling jump of $9,000, or 24 percent, over what was found by the 2000 Census. But facts are left out that could erase, if not reverse, that claim: It doesn’t explain that it’s a mean average — which, unlike the median average, seriously distorts incomes upward and, for that reason, is not used by the Census. And it doesn’t divulge what year it’s counting — 2005? Or 2007? — preventing a calculation of inflation as the real cause of the “increase.”
In the eight years since the Census, inflation has grown more than 27 percent, says Jack Kyser, chief economist at the L.A. Economic Development Corporation. Kyser’s figure is actually conservative.
Since the households in the nine areas have seen incomes rise only 24 percent, they may have backslid, not surged forward. And it’s clear why the nonprofit quietly failed to adjust for inflation: It would defeat its central purpose of boosterism, not impartial analysis.
Consider its CEO’s explanation: “We’re not there to shill for anybody,” Talmage defends, then adds, “We don’t necessarily highlight” things that might reflect poorly on a troubled community. “Part of what we want to do is ‘Do No Harm.’ We’re trying to show that there are assets that aren’t captured. It’s not an econometric study.”
No academics were fooled by the study. The researchers who reviewed it for L.A. Weekly applauded the nonprofit’s intentions to draw positive attention to blighted, ignored or heavily minority areas but universally questioned its methods and conclusions.
“Their units of analysis really concern me,” says LMU’s Magnabosco. “Even in the tables for these particular communities, I would never allow something like this to leave my shop. [With] a lot of these numbers that they’re putting out, it’s not clear who vetted this.”
The study cites a surprising 16 percent increase in resident ownership as evidence of new wealth in the nine L.A. neighborhoods. It fails to mention that thousands who could not afford homes bought anyway — and are now the sad stats in the foreclosure crisis.
“There’s going to be a huge area here affected by the mortgage crisis,” says James Allen, a Cal State Northridge geographer who co-authored “Changing Faces, Changing Places,” the most comprehensive demographic profile of Los Angeles since the last Census. “That’s going to defeat a large part of the positive here.”
According to the April to July data from RealtyTrac, a foreclosure database, more than 905 default notices have been sent to the nine areas — the very homeowners touted by the fluffy study. All told, 1,401 homes are in the process of foreclosure.
“DrillDown L.A.” didn’t impress Ali Modarres either. The associate director of the Pat Brown Institute at Cal State L.A. points to Social Compact’s unacceptable use of “apples and oranges”: comparing the income of current homeowners to the 2000 earnings of “average” residents. Where to start with such a tortured piece of data? Homeowners make more money than average residents, who are mostly renters. They can’t be compared. Second, average residents’ incomes were taken from the 2000 Census, not adjusted for inflation, further padding the supposed progress.
“Methodology typically determines the outcome,” Modarres says. “And they chose their own methodology. How much of this is inflationary and how much is even comparable [to the Census data] because they’re using a completely different methodology?”
Mayor Villaraigosa, who has come under criticism for chronically announcing big quality-of-life initiatives — planting 1 million trees, reducing congestion, fighting grafitti, ending filthy dumping — that go nowhere, seems almost desperate to make struggling neighborhoods appear better off.
Cecilia V. Estolano, the Villaraigosa appointee who heads the Community Redevelopment Agency, is not at all bothered by the pointed questions raised by these independent academics. “We think it’s a great report,” she tells the Weekly, “and we think it’s going to be tremendously useful to get companies to invest in these areas. We intend to use this data to [give to] marketers. ... I think this report will help spur more investment.”
In fact, the opposite is more likely. Villaraigosa’s seeking of a hollow study will probably be seen as statistical chicanery by serious community investors like grocery stores — an effort by the Villaraigosa administration to paper over a situation instead of addressing the quality-of-life issues that keep investors out.
Richard Livingston, a veteran site consultant for grocery chains nationwide, who is also familiar with Social Compact’s impact on luring investments like grocery store chains, says simply, “All that data is meaningless!”
He tells L.A. Weekly, “They’re all cherry-picked to make it look better than it really is. It makes me sick when I read these things. It’s like late-night infomercials. It’s selected information. ... You can’t pee on these supermarkets and tell them it’s lemonade.”
More and more, the obvious is coming to light: The Emperor has no clothes.
Wake-up L.A. Vara-goose America is determined to turn L.A. then the rest of the Southwest into mexico with him as president and Geraldo Reverse America as his V.P. remember the "VOTE" is the most powerful weapon on earth ... AND ... they are using it against us. More than 20% of votes cast in the last election were by illegal mexicans, and guess who got elected ... SURPRISE ! A MEXICAN !
Americans need to get out and "VOTE" and take back America for "REAL AMERICANS"
Long Beach has water rationing and strict penalties against excessive usage and waste. LA's announced it will consider copying Long Beach -- but when it rolled out its recent milder warning system, people didn't like it too much. Be careful what you wish for.